This report summarises national laboratory testing for SARS-CoV-2, the virus causing COVID-19, in South Africa. This report is based on data collected up to 2 January 2023 (week 1 of 2023).

Key highlights:  

• R estimates based on cases were close to or below 1 nationally and in all provinces at the end of the estimation period.
• R estimates based on admissions were close to 1 nationally and in all six of the provinces for which numbers of admissions were sufficient to produce reasonable estimates (Eastern Cape, Free State, Gauteng, Mpumalanga, Western Cape) at the end of the admissions-based estimation period; even in these provinces credible intervals were large due to relatively low numbers of admissions.
• The numbers of tests being conducted are at the lowest level since the beginning of the pandemic and were decreasing at the end of the estimation period. The low number of tests leads to increased uncertainty in the R estimates. A decreasing trend in testing reduces the apparent rate of epidemic growth and may bias R estimates downward. Short-term increases or decreases in testing – e.g., related to holidays or changes in testing guidelines, may also lead to spurious increases or decreases in R. The results presented in this report must be interpreted with these caveats in mind.

THE INITIAL AND DAILY COVID-19 EFFECTIVE REPRODUCTIVE NUMBER IN SOUTH AFRICA (Jan 2023)